💰 6 Months Later, the Real Estate Market Will Undergo a Major Shift! Future Outlook and Investment Strategies

6 Months Later, the Real Estate Market Will Undergo a Major Shift! Future Outlook and Investment Strategies

📢 The real estate market is always volatile.

From the second half of 2024 to 2025, the market is expected to undergo a period of significant upheaval. Factors such as political uncertainty, changes in interest rate policies, and supply shortages will intersect to shape the future of real estate.

  • 📉 How Is the Real Estate Market Moving Right Now?
  • 🔥 Key Factors Affecting the Real Estate Market in Six Months
  • 🚀 Will the Real Estate Market Rebound or Decline in Six Months?
  • 💡 Buying vs. Selling Strategies

📉 How Is the Real Estate Market Moving Right Now?

At the beginning of 2024, the real estate market has experienced rapid shifts. In Seoul, transaction volume has surged and then declined again.

  • January 2024: Transaction volume decreased
  • March–May: Transaction volume increased
  • June–August: Sharp rise
  • After September: Government loan regulations introduced → Transaction volume declined

This pattern suggests that the market is going through cycles of rapid surges and adjustments in the short term. Especially after September, as the government tightened loan regulations, buyer sentiment weakened, and investors became more cautious.


🔥 Key Factors Affecting the Real Estate Market in Six Months

Several critical factors will influence the real estate market over the next six months.

1️⃣ Political Uncertainty (Domestic Impeachment Crisis & U.S. Trump Factor)

  • Domestic Situation: The impeachment issue is creating market uncertainty, and a decision is likely within the next 3–6 months.
  • U.S. Situation: If Trump is elected, a strong dollar and high-interest rate policies may continue.
  • 💡 Market Sentiment: Continued uncertainty could lead to cautious investor behavior, strengthening the wait-and-see approach.

2️⃣ Interest Rate Changes

  • U.S. Federal Reserve Rate: A rate cut is expected in December 2024, with further reductions likely in 2025.
  • Korea’s Base Rate: The Bank of Korea may also consider rate cuts to stimulate the economy.
  • Loan Regulations: The implementation of DSR Phase 2 has tightened lending conditions, but lower interest rates may ease borrowing costs and positively impact the market.
  • 💡 Market Sentiment: Interest rate cuts could stimulate buying sentiment.

3️⃣ Supply Shortage

  • Projected Decrease in Housing Supply (2026–2027, Seoul): The number of new units is expected to drop significantly to around 7,000 per year.
  • Supply Shortages Lead to Higher Rents: If rental prices rise, home prices may also increase.
  • 💡 Market Sentiment: A supply shortage may drive property prices higher again.

🚀 Will the Real Estate Market Rebound or Decline in Six Months?

The key question now is whether the real estate market will rebound or decline in the coming months. The most crucial factor in determining this is whether uncertainty is resolved.

🔹 Scenario 1: Uncertainty Resolved in the First Half → Possible Rebound in the Second Half

  • ✅ Conditions:
    • Political uncertainty is resolved (impeachment issue settled, stable government).
    • Interest rate cuts ease borrowing costs.
    • Rental market stabilizes & supply shortages take effect.
  • ✅ Outcome:
    • Prices could start rebounding in the second half of 2025.
    • Demand from first-time homebuyers and upgraders may increase.
    • A sentiment shift toward “this is the opportunity” could emerge.

🔹 Scenario 2: Continued Uncertainty → Further Decline Possible

  • 🚨 Conditions:
    • The impeachment issue drags on.
    • Economic uncertainty persists (weak exports, currency volatility).
    • Economic downturn deepens & unclear interest rate policies.
  • 🚨 Outcome:
    • Buyer sentiment weakens → Higher likelihood of price declines.
    • A “second downturn” similar to 2022–2023 may occur.
    • Homeowners who try to hold out may eventually sell at discounted prices.

💡 What Should We Do Now? (Buying vs. Selling Strategies)

🔍 Buying Strategy (Homebuyers & Investors)

  • Wait and Observe First: Monitor whether uncertainty is resolved.
  • Look for Distressed Sales: Prices may temporarily drop in the next 2–3 months, creating opportunities.
  • Focus on Areas with Declining Housing Supply: Pay attention to regions where supply is decreasing.

🔍 Selling Strategy (Homeowners & Investors)

  • Avoid Selling at a Loss: A sharp decline in property values is unlikely.
  • Consider a Potential Rebound in 2025: Observe the market until the first half before making decisions.
  • Account for Regional Differences: Seoul and the metropolitan area may hold their value better, but local markets could face prolonged challenges.

📢 2025 Will Be a Defining Year for the Real Estate Market

The real estate market is highly volatile and driven by numerous factors. In six months, the market will undergo significant changes influenced by political uncertainty, interest rate cuts, and supply shortages.

📌 Key Takeaways:

  • The market will likely remain in a wait-and-see mode until the second half of 2024.
  • Resolving uncertainty in early 2025 will be a critical factor.
  • A supply shortage and interest rate cuts may lead to a rebound in the second half of 2025.
  • Careful and strategic planning is necessary instead of impulsive buying or selling.

The next six months will be a crucial period determining the trajectory of the real estate market for the coming years. It is a time for thorough analysis and strategic approaches. How are you preparing your real estate strategy?